Rates unlikely to surge during oil tanker peak season as overcapacity weighs.

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OIL tanker rates that fell into lossmaking territory on maintenance at oil fields and refineries in October may not have sufficient momentum to hit the highs seen in 2016-2017 during the November to January peak season.

“The market fundamentals are too weak for that to happen. We are seeing the highest oil demand ever, but also a fleet growth of almost 5%.”

It said global oil demand is moving toward an all-time high at 98.7m barrels per day in the fourth quarter, up 1.9% year-on-year, with Asia taking up a substantial portion.

That is good for shipping, especially if African producers meet that demand, thereby increasing the tonne-miles.

As for product tankers, the shipping organisation expects stronger momentum for rates, although any market recovery looks fragile, with global oil stocks built up over the 2013-2016 period needing to be drawn down for tanker demand to be balanced again.

“There is still a lot to do on that account despite erroneous statements of a ‘near-balanced’ oil market,” sourse said.